{"id":1124,"date":"2016-08-08T02:44:11","date_gmt":"2016-08-08T02:44:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nebraska.precisionnewmedia.com\/?p=1124"},"modified":"2016-08-16T02:44:42","modified_gmt":"2016-08-16T02:44:42","slug":"the-first-two-years-of-the-trump-presidency-an-historical-counterfactual","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nebraskademocrats.org\/su\/blog\/the-first-two-years-of-the-trump-presidency-an-historical-counterfactual\/","title":{"rendered":"Dua Taun Mimiti Kapersidenan Trump - Counterfactual Sajarah"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dina ahir minggu kahiji Agustus 2016, Hillary Clinton miboga kalungguhan 7 titik solid dina rupa averages polling. Demokrat mimiti ngabayangkeun jaman anyar reformasi Progresif sareng Kapersidenan Clinton sareng Kongr\u00e9s D\u00e9mokratik. Republicans \u00e9ta dina kaayaan asa jeung panik. Sababaraha pamimpin Republik malah mimiti mikirkeun ngantunkeun Trump sareng ngagunakeun sumber dayana pikeun ngajaga Kongr\u00e9s anu dikawasa GOP.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dina respon kana tailspin ieu, barudak Trump staged hiji campur dipingpin ku Donald Trump, putra Jr Trump urang emphasized ka bapana y\u00e9n \u00e9ta k\u00e9n\u00e9h r\u00e9latif mimiti jeung man\u00e9hna loba waktu pikeun panggung comeback a. The GOP nominee nyandak campur serius tur jangji baris ngangkat kaulinan na.<\/p>\n

Hal kahiji anu dilakukeun ku Trump nya\u00e9ta pikeun mecat pangkat amatir anu parantos ngajalankeun kampanyena sareng ngagentos aranjeunna ku para veteran ti kampanye Pr\u00e9sid\u00e9n George W. Bush di 2000 sareng 2004. Penggalangan dana ningkat, organisasi kampanye mimiti dibentuk di nagara-nagara medan perang sareng Iklan anu diproduksi sacara prof\u00e9sional mimiti ngabahekeun gelombang udara.<\/p>\n

Trump anu \u00e9nggal sareng langkung disiplin muncul dina jalan satapak kampanye. Kalayan pengecualian anu jarang, Trump nyangkut naskah sareng ngahindarkeun kom\u00e9ntar anu bodo. The mogul hue oranyeu doggedly nyangkut kana t\u00e9ma y\u00e9n po\u00e9na dagang teu adil jeung imigrasi ilegal ngabalukarkeun gajih kelas menengah stagnate atawa lamun heunteu tumuwuh teuing lalaunan. Dina waktos anu sami, rumor disebarkeun y\u00e9n Trump parantos ngamimitian nyandak obat psikotropika pikeun ngontrol swings hat\u00e9na.<\/p>\n

Trump og\u00e9 nuturkeun nas\u00e9hat manajer kampanyena sareng nampik debat Clinton. T\u00e9t\u00e9la pikeun staf \u00e9nggalna y\u00e9n teu aya deui jalan Trump tiasa tetep pesen salami tilu debat anu henteu ditulis. D\u00e9mokrat sareng pers dir\u00e9aksikeun kalayan amarah tapi \u00e9pisode ieu \u00e9nggal-\u00e9nggal hilap sareng jarang disebatkeun deui.<\/p>\n

Trump anyar nutup celah jeung Clinton jeung ngan trailed ku ngeunaan tilu titik ku pertengahan Oktober. Ominously, ngeunaan dua minggu sam\u00e9m\u00e9h po\u00e9 pamilihan, pro-Trump Super PACs mecenghul di nagara medan perang sarta mimiti kaluar m\u00e9akkeun Demokrat ku rasio 2-1. Ningali kabiasaan Trump anu ningkat, baraya Koch kaluar tina sela-sela sareng tuang artos anu ageung kana kampanye. Leuwih ti \u00e9ta, aya rumor y\u00e9n GOP Super PACs m\u00e9akkeun duit laundered ti oligarki Putin di Rusia.<\/p>\n

Nepi ka po\u00e9 pamilihan, polling nunjukkeun y\u00e9n balapan \u00e9ta caket teuing pikeun nelepon. Dinten pamilihan sorangan ditandaan ku penindasan pamilih Republik anu masif di nagara-nagara medan perang. Jutaan pamilih D\u00e9mokratik pot\u00e9nsial ditolak dina jajak pendapat saprak seueur gubernur GOP di nagara-nagara medan perang parantos ngabersihkeun aranjeunna tina daptar pamilih.<\/p>\n

Isuk-isuk saatos pamilihan, Clinton mingpin Trump 46.5% ka 46% dina sora popul\u00e9r nasional. (Johnson meunang 5% jeung Stein 2%.) Clinton mingpin 266 nepi ka 252 dina sora Panwaslu tapi dua puluh undian Panwaslu Ohio urang \u00e9ta up for cengkraman saprak pamilihan di nagara Buckeye deukeut teuing nelepon.<\/p>\n

Clinton heureut meunang recount otomatis diperlukeun l\u00e9gal tapi Republicans falsely dugaan panipuan masif dina recount nu. Legislatif Ohio ngaluluskeun undang-undang anu nyatakeun y\u00e9n Trump parantos ngalaksanakeun Ohio sareng masihan anjeunna 20 undian pamilihan nagara \u00e9ta. D\u00e9wan Perwakilan anu dikawasa GOP - anu ngalangkungan sora pamilihan - masihan 20 sora pamilihan Trump Ohio sareng nyatakeun anjeunna janten Pr\u00e9sid\u00e9n AS ka-45.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e9sid\u00e9n Trump gancang ngaku mandat sareng nyatakeun y\u00e9n John F. Kennedy sareng George W. Bush "henteu skala deui agendana saatos meunang mayoritas agul." Trump sareng Kongr\u00e9s Republik Kongr\u00e9s bisnis munggaran nya\u00e9ta tagihan anggaran omnibus anu ageung anu bakal disalurkeun kalayan 51 undian di S\u00e9nat nganggo aturan rekonsiliasi anggaran anu sami anu ditolak ku GOP salami Kapersidenan Obama.<\/p>\n

RUU anggaran Pr\u00e9sid\u00e9n anyar ngagabungkeun pajeg $10 triliun na nu utamana nguntungkeun nu jegud, anggaran Ryan nu privatized Medicare sarta motong badag dina program pikeun jalma miskin, pancabutan tina Affordable Care Act sarta rencana ngagantian GOP. \u00c9konom non-partisan ngingetkeun rencana anggaran ieu berpotensi ngirim \u00e9konomi kana resesi sabab bakal niup defisit sareng nyepak 20 juta urang Amerika tina kawijakan asuransi kas\u00e9hatan na.<\/p>\n

Perdebatan paling divisive ngeunaan tagihan anggaran omnibus Trump lumangsung di DPR. Nalika tagihan anggaran omnibus dibawa ka DPR pikeun sora a, anggota dib\u00e9r\u00e9 kirang ti hiji po\u00e9 maca bil 850-kaca, palanggaran aturan DPR. Leuwih ti \u00e9ta, Speaker DPR Paul Ryan ngayakeun sora kabuka pikeun catetan tilu jam bari nyoba ngarobah hasilna - ngaliwatan tindakan keur nyingsieunan jeung taktik s\u00e9j\u00e9n anu, deui, dilanggar aturan House. Salaku conto, hiji anggota DPR dijanjikeun sumbangan kampanye $100,000 ti industri asuransi kas\u00e9hatan upami anjeunna milih pak\u00e9t anggaran Trump.<\/p>\n

Saatos anggaran Trump lulus ku hiji sora, Demokrat hollered "\u00e9ra" jeung dikutuk taktik bullying dipak\u00e9 pikeun lulus tagihanana. Hiji waktos veteran House nyarios: "Kuring parantos dina politik salami 22 taun sareng \u00e9ta mangrupikeun dinten anu paling awon anu kuring kantos ningali dina 22 taun." \u00c9lmuwan politik anu kasohor Norm Ornstein nyarios: "Pros\u00e9s politik anu dianggo pikeun ngalangkungan anggaran omnibus Trump mangrupikeun panyalahgunaan anu paling awon tina pros\u00e9s l\u00e9gislatif anu kuring tingali salami mangtaun-taun diajar Kongr\u00e9s."<\/p>\n

Dampak dunya nyata tina anggaran anu nemb\u00e9 lulus \u00e9ta langsung sareng bencana. Saatos Kantor APBD non-partisan ramalan $1 triliun deficits taunan sajauh panon bisa ningali, pasar saham rubuh tur leungit salaku loba taneuh sakumaha eta tuh dina po\u00e9 po\u00e9k 2008-09. Saatos dua puluh juta urang Amerika kaleungitan cakupan asuransi kas\u00e9hatan, kamar darurat kaserang ku urang Amerika anu gering sareng nekat. Rumah sakit sareng perusahaan asuransi diwajibkeun pikeun PHK r\u00e9buan karyawan saatos pancabutan Obama Care. \u00c9konomi janten resesi dina Oktober 2017.<\/p>\n

Kongr\u00e9s henteu nangtung pikeun Trump dina masalah imigrasi. Koalisi Demokrat sareng Republik sedeng ngablokir dana pikeun t\u00e9mbok Trump sareng ngarencanakeun pikeun nundung 11 juta urang Amerika. Sajaba ti \u00e9ta, \u00e9ta koalisi sarua bottled up rencana Trump pikeun naekeun tariffs on impor ti M\u00e9ksiko jeung Cina.<\/p>\n

Sanajan Republik geus relentlessly narajang pesenan eksekutif Obama, kalobaannana nyatujuan par\u00e9ntah eksekutif Trump pikeun ngalarang sadaya Muslim asup ka AS The ACLU geuwat Filed gugatan jeung m\u00e9nta injunction. Pam\u00e9nta \u00e9ta ditolak ku hakim f\u00e9deral anu diangkat Trump.<\/p>\n

Sekutu Am\u00e9rika di W\u00e9tan Tengah ngamuk ku par\u00e9ntah eksekutif Trump ngeunaan asupna Muslim ka Arab Saudi, Kuwait, Qatar sareng Uni \u00c9mirat Arab dibales ku motong hubungan diplomatik sareng AS sareng ngeureunkeun babagi intelijen sareng CIA sareng milit\u00e9r AS.<\/p>\n

Trump ambek-ambekan ku r\u00e9spon sekutu urang di W\u00e9tan Tengah kana pesenan eksekutif \u00e9ntri Muslim na sareng palsu ngabantah y\u00e9n aranjeunna nyayogikeun ajudan sareng kanyamanan ka ISIS. Pr\u00e9sid\u00e9n ngintunkeun 30,000 tentara darat ka Irak pikeun ngalawan ISIS sareng nyarios y\u00e9n \u00e9ta diyakinkeun ku sekutu urang "teu satia". \u00c9ta 30,000 pasukan langsung diserang ku pemberontak Irak sareng AS sakali deui kaserang dina rawa di Irak. Trump langkung ti dua kali pikeun campur tanganna sareng ngirim tambahan 70,000 pasukan ka Irak dina awal 2018.<\/p>\n

Panginten kaputusan Trump anu paling gagabah nya\u00e9ta nolak perjanjian nuklir Iran Pr\u00e9sid\u00e9n Obama. Trump contended AS bakal meunang "deal had\u00e9". Urang Iran nolak badami sareng neruskeun - komo ngagancangkeun - program nuklirna. Trump enggal-enggal aya dina tekanan anu ageung ti neo-cons GOP sareng m\u00e9dia jangjang katuhu pikeun nyerang Iran.<\/p>\n

Dina isuk 18 Maret 2018, Pr\u00e9sid\u00e9n Trump ngumumkeun dina pidato ti Kantor Oval y\u00e9n anjeunna parantos ngamimitian ngabom Iran pikeun ngeureunkeun program nuklirna. Trump nyarios: "Teu aya ragu y\u00e9n Iran ayeuna gaduh senjata pemusnah massal. Teu aya ragu aranjeunna ngumpulkeun aranjeunna pikeun dianggo ngalawan babaturan urang, ngalawan sekutu sareng ngalawan urang. Amerika teu kedah malire anceman gathering ngalawan urang. Nyanghareupan bukti anu jelas ngeunaan bahaya, urang teu tiasa ngantosan bukti ahir, bedil roko anu tiasa sumping dina bentuk awan jamur.<\/p>\n

Sababaraha minggu serangan bom massal nyusul \u00e9ta pengumuman Kantor Oval. R\u00e9buan warga sipil Iran anu teu bersalah tiwas sareng para ahli nyarios y\u00e9n serangan bom ngan bakal ngalambatkeun program nuklir Iran salami lima taun. Sabalikna, perjanjian nuklir Obama ditunda program nuklir Iran salami 10 dugi ka 15 taun.<\/p>\n

Urang Iran ngabales serangan bom ku cara meungpeuk Selat Hormuz - dimana sabagian ageung pasokan minyak dunya diangkut. Aya kakirangan gas anu ageung di sakumna dunya sareng harga gas gancang n\u00e9mbak dugi ka $10 per galon. Resesi AS Trumps dirobih janten Depresi \u00e9konomi di dunya.<\/p>\n

Dina usum gugur taun 2018, rating persetujuan Trump parantos turun ka handap 18% - tingkat anu langkung handap tina Nixon nalika skandal Watergate sareng Bush saatos runtuh \u00e9konomi 2008. Gelombang D\u00e9mokratik kabentuk sareng p\u00e9sta oposisi langkung milih janten ageung. gains dina pamilihan patengahan.<\/p>\n

Salaku t\u00e9t\u00e9la, Demokrat meunangkeun deui kadali Kongr\u00e9s nalika aranjeunna ngangkat 70 korsi DPR jeung 12 korsi S\u00e9nat. Hasil pamilihan mangrupikeun panolakan anu ageung pikeun Trump sareng sekutu GOP na. Ruang lingkup sapuan \u00e9ta lega sahingga Dennis P. Crawford mangrupikeun D\u00e9mokrat munggaran anu nyandak korsi DPR di Nebraska CD01 ti saprak longsor LBJ 1964.<\/p>\n

Dina awal 2019, pesaing Pr\u00e9sid\u00e9n mimiti ngatur kampanyena sareng nganjang ka caucus awal sareng nagara bagian prim\u00e9r sapertos Iowa sareng New Hampshire. Di sisi Republik, Ted Cruz sareng Ben Sasse mangrupikeun paporit awal. Contenders D\u00e9mokratik unggulan \u00e9ta Elizabeth Warren jeung Tim Kaine.<\/p>\n

Skenario anu kuring parantos ditata pisan masuk akal sareng tiasa pisan kajantenan. Urang teu kudu sugema atawa leuwih percaya diri. The Republicans masih boga aks\u00e9s ka tunai kampanye taya sarta alus dina narajang. Urang Demokrat kedah nyandak nanaon for teu dibales. Urang kedah terus kerja keras pikeun tiket urang sareng ngantepkeun sadayana di lapangan. Ayeuna hayu urang rengse! Kuring nyaho urang bisa ngalakukeun eta!<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At the end of the first week of August 2016, Hillary Clinton had a solid 7 point lead in the various polling averages. Democrats began to envision a new era of Progressive reform with a Clinton Presidency and a Democratic Congress. Republicans were in a state of despair and panic. \u00a0Some Republican leaders even began … Maca deui<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1124","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe First Two Years Of The Trump Presidency - An Historical Counterfactual – Nebraska Democratic Party<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nebraskademocrats.org\/su\/blog\/the-first-two-years-of-the-trump-presidency-an-historical-counterfactual\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The First Two Years Of The Trump Presidency - An Historical Counterfactual – Nebraska Democratic Party\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"At the end of the first week of August 2016, Hillary Clinton had a solid 7 point lead in the various polling averages. Democrats began to envision a new era of Progressive reform with a Clinton Presidency and a Democratic Congress. Republicans were in a state of despair and panic. \u00a0Some Republican leaders even began ... Read more\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/nebraskademocrats.org\/su\/blog\/the-first-two-years-of-the-trump-presidency-an-historical-counterfactual\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Nebraska Democratic Party\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/NebraskaDemocraticParty\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-08-08T02:44:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2016-08-16T02:44:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/nebraskademocrats.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/ne-dems-fb.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Precious McKesson\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@nebraskadems\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@nebraskadems\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Precious McKesson\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nebraskademocrats.org\\\/blog\\\/the-first-two-years-of-the-trump-presidency-an-historical-counterfactual\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nebraskademocrats.org\\\/blog\\\/the-first-two-years-of-the-trump-presidency-an-historical-counterfactual\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Precious McKesson\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nebraskademocrats.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/33e011ea0795f404810dc40828bcf289\"},\"headline\":\"The First Two Years Of The Trump Presidency – An Historical Counterfactual\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-08-08T02:44:11+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-08-16T02:44:42+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nebraskademocrats.org\\\/blog\\\/the-first-two-years-of-the-trump-presidency-an-historical-counterfactual\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1710,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nebraskademocrats.org\\\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"NDP Blog\"],\"inLanguage\":\"su\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nebraskademocrats.org\\\/blog\\\/the-first-two-years-of-the-trump-presidency-an-historical-counterfactual\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/nebraskademocrats.org\\\/blog\\\/the-first-two-years-of-the-trump-presidency-an-historical-counterfactual\\\/\",\"name\":\"The First Two Years Of The Trump Presidency - 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Democrats began to envision a new era of Progressive reform with a Clinton Presidency and a Democratic Congress. Republicans were in a state of despair and panic. \u00a0Some Republican leaders even began ... 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